Search for: All records

Abstract Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to life, property, and the economy. As forecasting capabilities increase, the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scale provides an opportunity for advanced notice of impactful precipitation events. Building on a previous workshop, the Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods (PRES²iP) project team conducted a second workshop virtually in the fall of 2021. The workshop engaged a variety of practitioners, including emergency managers, water managers, tribal environmental professionals, and National Weather Service meteorologists. While the team’s first workshop examined the “big picture” in how practitioners define “extreme precipitation” and how precipitation events impact their jobs, this workshop focused on details of S2S precipitation products, both current and potential future decision tools. Discussions and activities in this workshop assessed how practitioners use existing forecast products to make decisions about extreme precipitation, how they interpret newly developed educational tools from the PRES²iP team, and how they manage uncertainty in forecasts. By collaborating with practitioners, the PRES²iP team plans to use knowledge gained going forward to create more educational and operational tools related to S2S extreme precipitation event prediction, helping practitioners to make more informed decisions. 

Abstract Heavy precipitation events and their associated flooding can have major impacts on communities and stakeholders. There is a lack of knowledge, however, about how stakeholders make decisions at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales (i.e., 2 weeks to 3 months). To understand how decisions are made and S2S predictions are or can be used, the project team for “Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Subseasonal to Seasonal Periods” (PRES 2 iP) conducted a 2-day workshop in Norman, Oklahoma, during July 2018. The workshop engaged 21 professionals from environmental management and public safety communities across the contiguous United States in activities to understand their needs for S2S predictions of potential extended heavy precipitation events. Discussions and role-playing activities aimed to identify how workshop participants manage uncertainty and define extreme precipitation, the time scales over which they make key decisions, and the types of products they use currently. This collaboration with stakeholders has been an integral part of PRES 2 iP research and has aimed to foster actionable science. The PRES 2 iP team is using the information produced from this workshop to inform the development of predictive models for extended heavy precipitation events and to collaboratively design new forecast products with our stakeholders, empowering them to make more-informed decisions about potential extreme precipitation events. 

Abstract As a result of climate change, extreme precipitation events are likely to become more common in Oklahoma, requiring cities and municipalities to plan for managing this extra water. There are multiple types of practitioners within communities who are responsible for overseeing planning for the future, including stormwater and floodplain management. These practitioners may be able to integrate weather and climate information into their decision-making to help them prepare for heavy precipitation events and their impacts. Floodplain managers from central and eastern Oklahoma were interviewed to learn what information they currently use and how it informs their decision-making. When making decisions in the short term, floodplain managers relied on weather forecasts; for long-term decisions, other factors, such as constrained budgets or the power of county officials, had more influence than specific climate predictions or projections. On all time scales, social networks and prior experience with flooding informed floodplain managers’ decisions and planning. Overall, information about weather and climate is just one component of floodplain managers’ decision-making processes. The atmospheric science community could work more collaboratively with practitioners so that information about weather and climate is more useful and, therefore, more relevant to the types of decisions that floodplain managers make.